Today: YX 3690 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet today YX 3690 CVG 09:05 → ORD 09:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5595 CVG 18:15 → ORD 18:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 3690 Republic	CVG 09:05	ORD 09:48	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 3497 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 09:08	ORD 09:45	9%	2%	0.5%	76%
MQ 4097 Envoy	CVG 10:34	ORD 10:59	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 3485 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 11:17	ORD 11:53	11%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 3489 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 10:05	ORD 10:37	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 4412 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 13:31	ORD 14:08	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 4507 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 14:36	ORD 15:13	12%	4%	0.5%	72%
AA 4720 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 14:55	ORD 15:32	12%	4%	0.5%	72%
AA 4409 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 14:06	ORD 14:43	13%	3%	0.5%	80%
AA 3894 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 08:58	ORD 09:35	15%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 1738 United	CVG 10:44	ORD 11:14	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 3488 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 12:04	ORD 12:36	15%	4%	0.6%	91%
MQ 3675 Envoy	CVG 12:05	ORD 12:37	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 08:53	ORD 09:18	16%	4%	0.6%	38%
MQ 4099 Envoy	CVG 21:11	ORD 21:30	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 4746 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CVG 13:56	ORD 14:29	24%	5%	0.7%	56%
AA 6230 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CVG 19:07	ORD 19:59	25%	9%	0.8%	61%
UA 1813 United Flight history →	CVG 18:12	ORD 18:50	25%	7%	0.6%	47%
OO 5540 SkyWest	CVG 12:04	ORD 12:32	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4735 SkyWest	CVG 14:06	ORD 14:34	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4749 SkyWest	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:42	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 5595 SkyWest	CVG 18:15	ORD 18:46	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 4177 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 19:54	ORD 20:34	22%	0%	12.9%	78%
UA 4171 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:52	23%	14%	5.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON