Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 23–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5298 CVG 11:41 → PHL 13:33 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2987 CVG 19:10 → PHL 20:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5298 PSA	CVG 11:41	PHL 13:33	23%	10%	2.7%	no record
AA 5515 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 17:56	PHL 19:47	24%	11%	2.1%	63%
AA 5605 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 11:25	PHL 13:13	24%	11%	2.7%	78%
OH 5546 PSA	CVG 16:26	PHL 18:21	25%	11%	2.3%	no record
AA 2987 American	CVG 19:10	PHL 20:48	28%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON