Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:44 pm at Hebron); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 20:25, is the safest bet: 43% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2990 American Flight history →	CVG 17:53	PHX 18:52	28%	10%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AA 1725 American Flight history →	CVG 18:37	PHX 19:42	31%	11%	1.0%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 16:11 → DTW 16:55DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	3h 49m Detroit	DTW 20:44 → PHX 21:48DL 2076	8h 37m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	6h 36m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	CVG 19:59 → SLC 21:44DL 2149	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	6h 32m	85%	68%
United Details →	CVG 18:12 → ORD 18:50UA 1813	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602	7h 15m	89%	68%
United Details →	CVG 17:00 → IAH 18:40UA 738	3h 00m Houston	IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432	8h 25m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842	9h 23m	100%	63%
American Details →	CVG 18:25 → MIA 21:04AA 3487 · flown by Envoy	1h 08m Miami	MIA 22:12 → PHX 00:07 +1AA 2427	8h 42m	87%	63%
American Details →	CVG 19:07 → ORD 19:59AA 6230 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 22:51 → PHX 00:57 +1AA 435	8h 50m	91%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CVG 20:25 → MDW 20:35WN 1251	50m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → PHX 23:01WN 2961	5h 36m	66%	43%
American Details →	CVG 19:07 → ORD 19:59AA 6230 · flown by SkyWest	49m Chicago	ORD 20:48 → PHX 22:51AA 3277	6h 44m	63%	40%
Alaska Details →	CVG 17:07 → SEA 19:07AS 508	48m Seattle	SEA 19:55 → PHX 22:53AS 632	8h 46m	50%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON