tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:58 am at Hebron)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5400 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record CVG 13:31 RDU 15:02 17% 7% 0.7% 83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 6h 51m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → CVG 12:04 → ORD 12:36AA 3488 · flown by Envoy 3h 23m Chicago ORD 15:59 → RDU 19:23AA 4518 · flown by Republic 7h 19m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:03 → DTW 12:16DL 5209 · flown by Endeavor 3h 46m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 6h 44m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932 7h 29m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → CVG 14:55 → IAD 16:34UA 4018 · flown by Mesa 2h 20m Dulles IAD 18:54 → RDU 20:11UA 1322 5h 16m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → CVG 11:17 → ORD 11:53UA 3485 · flown by Republic 2h 20m Chicago ORD 14:13 → RDU 17:27UA 2091 6h 10m 95% 78%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 15:50 → BWI 17:15WN 1247 3h 50m Baltimore BWI 21:05 → RDU 22:25WN 793 6h 35m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → CVG 19:45 → IAD 21:26UA 3677 · flown by Republic 59m Dulles IAD 22:25 → RDU 23:44UA 2382 3h 59m 90% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CVG 15:50 → BWI 17:15WN 1247 46m Baltimore BWI 18:01 → RDU 19:20WN 2144 3h 30m 70% 57%
AmericanDetails → CVG 17:07 → DCA 18:53AA 5199 · flown by PSA 1h 07m Washington DCA 20:00 → RDU 21:12AA 2083 4h 05m 65% 39%
AmericanDetails → CVG 15:15 → DFW 16:54AA 3305 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:43 → RDU 21:34AA 979 6h 19m 64% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON