Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2876 CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2149 CVG 19:59 → SLC 21:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2876 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:12	SLC 08:55	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 678 Delta Flight history →	CVG 12:30	SLC 14:14	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2149 Delta Flight history →	CVG 19:59	SLC 21:44	11%	2%	0.6%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CVG 11:20 → DEN 12:15WN 1249	59m Denver	DEN 13:14 → SLC 14:46WN 4900	5h 26m	86%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON