Today: WN 2196 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet today WN 2196 DAL 08:50 → ABQ 09:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1255 DAL 21:50 → ABQ 22:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2196 Southwest	DAL 08:50	ABQ 09:46	12%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1253 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:45	ABQ 11:30	18%	2%	0.2%	79%
WN 3099 Southwest	DAL 16:50	ABQ 17:46	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2796 Southwest	DAL 11:25	ABQ 12:21	26%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 3306 Southwest	DAL 14:25	ABQ 15:21	26%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 3660 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:50	ABQ 17:40	28%	6%	0.6%	40%
WN 148 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:40	ABQ 13:25	30%	3%	0.1%	68%
WN 1309 Southwest	DAL 21:42	ABQ 22:39	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1255 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:50	ABQ 22:40	33%	6%	0.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON