Today: WN 3012 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet today WN 3012 DAL 08:20 → AMA 09:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1260 DAL 21:55 → AMA 23:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3012 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:20	AMA 09:35	7%	1%	0.2%	88%
WN 1310 Southwest	DAL 09:20	AMA 10:46	7%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 1897 Southwest	DAL 12:45	AMA 14:11	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 380 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:35	AMA 13:50	13%	2%	0.1%	73%
WN 4464 Southwest	DAL 16:01	AMA 17:27	16%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 4127 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	AMA 17:45	20%	4%	0.1%	38%
WN 1312 Southwest	DAL 22:19	AMA 23:41	24%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 1260 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:55	AMA 23:15	26%	9%	0.5%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON