Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 516 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 516 DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1263 DAL 16:30 → ATL 19:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 4% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 516 Delta Flight history →	DAL 06:05	ATL 09:17	7%	2%	0.9%	90%
WN 1261 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	ATL 09:05	8%	1%	0.7%	95%
WN 336 Southwest	DAL 06:06	ATL 09:13	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 1115 Delta Flight history →	DAL 12:19	ATL 15:31	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	DAL 10:07	ATL 13:16	12%	3%	0.8%	85%
WN 1766 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:30	ATL 12:35	13%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	DAL 18:39	ATL 22:00	14%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	DAL 15:59	ATL 19:14	15%	4%	0.7%	72%
WN 1264 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:15	ATL 22:25	22%	5%	0.6%	36%
WN 1263 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	ATL 19:40	25%	5%	0.6%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON