Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 429 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day WN 429 DAL 06:00 → AUS 07:09 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1515 DAL 21:45 → AUS 22:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 429 Southwest	DAL 06:00	AUS 07:09	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1318 Southwest	DAL 07:23	AUS 08:32	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1265 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:35	AUS 08:40	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 4172 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:00	AUS 10:00	13%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 3485 Southwest	DAL 10:50	AUS 11:59	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 930 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:05	AUS 12:05	17%	3%	0.6%	68%
WN 931 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:20	AUS 13:20	20%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 354 Southwest	DAL 13:20	AUS 14:29	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2411 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:15	AUS 16:15	22%	5%	0.6%	46%
WN 1269 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:00	AUS 19:00	23%	6%	0.6%	58%
WN 1515 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	AUS 22:50	23%	7%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON