Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1519 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1519 DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 1277 DAL 16:40 → BNA 18:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1519 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:00	BNA 08:45	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 894 Southwest	DAL 08:45	BNA 10:37	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 434 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:20	BNA 10:10	11%	2%	0.5%	72%
WN 5062 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:00	BNA 11:50	12%	2%	0.6%	73%
WN 1275 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:25	BNA 14:15	16%	3%	0.6%	71%
WN 526 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:40	BNA 15:30	18%	4%	0.6%	56%
WN 5047 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:00	BNA 16:50	20%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 1278 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	BNA 23:35	22%	7%	0.5%	45%
WN 277 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:55	BNA 19:45	23%	6%	0.5%	38%
WN 1277 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:40	BNA 18:30	24%	6%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON