Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 324 Southwest	DAL 07:30	BOS 12:00	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4291 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:40	BOS 12:25	13%	2%	0.5%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 09:20 → BOS 12:40WN 1405	5h 40m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:35 → BOS 15:18DL 350	8h 13m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → BOS 13:41WN 4999	5h 41m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	8h 21m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 12:30 → BOS 15:50WN 4716	6h 20m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05WN 274	1h 15m St Louis	STL 10:20 → BOS 13:57WN 485	5h 37m	91%	80%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	3h 00m Denver	DEN 10:00 → BOS 16:05WN 3690	9h 05m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	3h 15m Chicago	MDW 19:35 → BOS 22:55WN 232	7h 50m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:10 → BWI 19:10WN 1283	55m Baltimore	BWI 20:05 → BOS 21:40WN 4361	5h 30m	75%	53%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → BNA 19:45WN 277	50m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → BOS 00:15 +1WN 459	5h 20m	70%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON