Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 13:05, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 38% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 4076 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:55	BUR 13:05	16%	4%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243	5h 40m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	1h 31m Denver	DEN 08:31 → BUR 10:04WN 1557	6h 04m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741	8h 25m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218	1h 55m Sacramento	SMF 11:10 → BUR 12:30WN 3765	6h 50m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:25 → LAS 08:10WN 2964	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 10:55 → BUR 12:10WN 1529	6h 45m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:25 → PHX 10:55WN 1166	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 12:45 → BUR 14:05WN 1493	5h 40m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 11:55 → BUR 13:10WN 4184	6h 25m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	2h 00m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579	6h 40m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:05 → LAS 13:45WN 3061	55m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → BUR 15:50WN 4540	4h 45m	75%	54%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:45 → SFO 09:30WN 485	50m San Francisco	SFO 10:20 → BUR 11:40WN 3635	5h 55m	38%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON