Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1280 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1280 DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1130 DAL 15:45 → BWI 19:38 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1280 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	BWI 09:55	8%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 1332 Southwest	DAL 06:00	BWI 09:54	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1281 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:20	BWI 11:15	10%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 1333 Southwest	DAL 08:30	BWI 12:24	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1965 Southwest	DAL 11:15	BWI 15:12	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2595 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:40	BWI 15:35	22%	3%	0.6%	56%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:50	BWI 00:50	25%	6%	0.6%	29%
WN 1283 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:10	BWI 19:10	25%	5%	0.6%	60%
WN 1284 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:45	BWI 20:45	27%	7%	0.6%	40%
WN 1130 Southwest	DAL 15:45	BWI 19:38	30%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON