Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4299 at 17:05, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4299 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:05	CLT 20:35	25%	8%	0.5%	30%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	2h 15m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343	6h 30m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 59m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	2h 35m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → CLT 21:55WN 4194	6h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 26m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:00 → BNA 16:50WN 5047	4h 00m Nashville	BNA 20:50 → CLT 23:20WN 4518	7h 20m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	7h 12m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519	1h 56m Nashville	BNA 10:41 → CLT 13:02WN 1223	5h 02m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → CLT 20:14DL 720	6h 55m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON