Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4386 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4386 DAL 08:00 → CMH 11:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 1341 DAL 20:45 → CMH 00:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4386 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:00	CMH 11:20	14%	2%	0.2%	81%
WN 4746 Southwest	DAL 10:55	CMH 14:17	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1289 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:10	CMH 23:35	33%	7%	0.5%	35%
WN 1341 Southwest	DAL 20:45	CMH 00:10	33%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON