Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3351 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3351 DAL 06:10 → DCA 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1295 DAL 18:50 → DCA 22:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 22% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3351 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	DCA 10:00	9%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 2559 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:20	DCA 13:15	21%	4%	0.6%	70%
WN 4418 Southwest	DAL 10:45	DCA 14:35	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4195 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:35	DCA 17:30	25%	7%	0.6%	43%
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:00	DCA 20:55	26%	8%	0.6%	24%
WN 1295 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:50	DCA 22:45	30%	9%	0.6%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON