Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1296 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1296 DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1346 DAL 13:10 → DEN 14:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1296 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	DEN 07:00	6%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 1348 Southwest	DAL 05:52	DEN 07:00	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1349 Southwest	DAL 07:02	DEN 08:10	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 239 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:40	DEN 09:45	13%	2%	0.6%	69%
WN 1300 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:45	DEN 10:45	14%	2%	0.6%	74%
WN 4394 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:45	DEN 11:45	16%	2%	0.6%	69%
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:35	DEN 12:35	16%	2%	0.6%	78%
WN 1350 Southwest	DAL 09:17	DEN 10:21	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 295 Southwest	DAL 11:50	DEN 12:54	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1303 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:20	DEN 19:50	23%	5%	0.6%	52%
WN 1304 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:25	DEN 20:45	23%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 1305 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	DEN 23:00	25%	6%	0.6%	62%
WN 1346 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:10	DEN 14:10	25%	3%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON