Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 38–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1937 DAL 19:50 → ECP 21:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time Riskiest WN 1251 DAL 20:20 → ECP 22:21 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1937 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:50	ECP 21:45	38%	9%	0.8%	49%
WN 1307 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:20	ECP 17:15	39%	7%	1.2%	58%
WN 1251 Southwest	DAL 20:20	ECP 22:21	40%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON