Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1309 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1309 DAL 06:05 → ELP 06:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 225 DAL 16:28 → ELP 17:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1309 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	ELP 06:45	4%	1%	0.2%	91%
WN 3682 Southwest	DAL 08:00	ELP 08:51	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4783 Southwest	DAL 12:22	ELP 13:10	17%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3373 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	ELP 22:35	21%	6%	0.5%	54%
WN 4396 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:05	ELP 13:45	21%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 1312 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:20	ELP 19:05	22%	5%	0.5%	67%
WN 225 Southwest	DAL 16:28	ELP 17:20	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON