Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1628 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 29 DAL 13:30 → HOU 14:45 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	6%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 1 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:52	HOU 08:11	6%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 3 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:30	HOU 08:45	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 15 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:59	HOU 11:18	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	HOU 09:45	9%	2%	0.7%	84%
WN 5 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:01	HOU 09:18	10%	2%	0.7%	85%
WN 23 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:30	HOU 11:45	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
WN 19 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:30	HOU 12:45	15%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 37 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:30	HOU 16:50	16%	4%	0.7%	66%
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:30	HOU 18:45	18%	4%	0.6%	60%
WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	HOU 17:45	22%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 63 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:00	HOU 23:15	22%	6%	0.7%	55%
WN 57 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:30	HOU 21:40	22%	5%	0.7%	72%
WN 27 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:00	HOU 14:18	24%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 29 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:30	HOU 14:45	24%	4%	0.6%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON