Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 28m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 18:49 → IAH 19:58DL 1131	7h 39m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 14:43 → IAH 15:54DL 1223	5h 47m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	59m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	5h 25m	83%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	48m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	5h 18m	75%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON