Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1365 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1365 DAL 06:30 → LAS 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1128 DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1365 Southwest	DAL 06:30	LAS 07:22	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1368 Southwest	DAL 07:34	LAS 08:24	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 695 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:45	LAS 09:35	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 2964 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:25	LAS 08:10	10%	1%	0.6%	73%
WN 1665 Southwest	DAL 09:15	LAS 10:05	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1370 Southwest	DAL 10:50	LAS 11:40	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 486 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:40	LAS 11:25	16%	3%	0.6%	62%
WN 1375 Southwest	DAL 11:47	LAS 12:39	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4378 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:45	LAS 23:35	20%	5%	0.6%	38%
WN 1369 Southwest	DAL 13:59	LAS 14:50	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1323 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:10	LAS 20:00	22%	5%	0.6%	41%
WN 3061 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:05	LAS 13:45	23%	4%	0.6%	48%
WN 1322 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:35	LAS 17:25	25%	5%	0.6%	49%
WN 1128 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:30	LAS 21:15	26%	6%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON