Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1326 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1326 DAL 06:00 → LAX 07:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1329 DAL 20:40 → LAX 21:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1326 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	LAX 07:10	8%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 1373 Southwest	DAL 05:57	LAX 07:12	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 268 Southwest	DAL 09:25	LAX 10:40	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1327 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:10	LAX 12:20	22%	3%	0.5%	58%
WN 4828 Southwest	DAL 13:26	LAX 14:37	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3161 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:30	LAX 16:40	30%	5%	0.5%	45%
WN 1330 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:55	LAX 00:10	33%	9%	0.6%	55%
WN 1329 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:40	LAX 21:50	37%	8%	0.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON