tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 15:20, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1336 Southwest Flight history → DAL 18:30 LGB 19:35 23% 5% 0.5% 42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296 1h 48m Denver DEN 08:48 → LGB 10:14WN 1655 6h 14m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379 2h 05m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165 5h 55m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:50 → OAK 10:30WN 1268 4h 00m Oakland OAK 14:30 → LGB 15:55WN 2951 9h 05m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628 1h 00m Houston HOU 08:10 → LGB 09:37WN 4690 5h 37m 94% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218 3h 16m Sacramento SMF 12:31 → LGB 14:06WN 1091 8h 26m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:25 → LAS 08:10WN 2964 1h 43m Las Vegas LAS 09:53 → LGB 11:06WN 4375 5h 41m 94% 81%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505 6h 05m 97% 79%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260 6h 00m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DAL 15:20 → PHX 15:45WN 4129 55m Phoenix PHX 16:40 → LGB 17:55WN 149 4h 35m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON