Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 801 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 801 DAL 07:40 → MAF 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1341 DAL 21:50 → MAF 23:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 801 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:40	MAF 09:00	6%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 4593 Southwest	DAL 09:15	MAF 10:35	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4579 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:45	MAF 12:55	13%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 1394 Southwest	DAL 12:16	MAF 13:34	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 488 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:10	MAF 17:25	25%	5%	0.6%	47%
WN 1341 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:50	MAF 23:10	33%	7%	0.6%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON