Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3975 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3975 DAL 06:05 → MCI 07:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4387 DAL 21:15 → MCI 22:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3975 Southwest	DAL 06:05	MCI 07:43	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4631 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	MCI 07:35	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 1343 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:35	MCI 10:10	11%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 2636 Southwest	DAL 10:05	MCI 11:50	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4317 Southwest	DAL 13:25	MCI 15:03	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1347 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:55	MCI 00:35	22%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 4327 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:00	MCI 13:30	25%	3%	0.5%	73%
WN 3068 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:55	MCI 17:25	25%	6%	0.6%	58%
WN 4387 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:15	MCI 22:50	26%	7%	0.6%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON