Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1404 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1404 DAL 06:19 → MCO 09:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1352 DAL 15:05 → MCO 18:50 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1404 Southwest	DAL 06:19	MCO 09:53	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2366 Southwest	DAL 07:39	MCO 11:13	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1497 Southwest	DAL 08:39	MCO 12:18	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1725 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:10	MCO 12:50	12%	2%	0.7%	81%
WN 1540 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:00	MCO 13:40	13%	3%	0.7%	58%
WN 4405 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:30	MCO 00:15	28%	9%	1.2%	52%
WN 463 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:35	MCO 22:15	31%	9%	1.2%	35%
WN 965 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:45	MCO 21:30	33%	10%	1.2%	42%
WN 1352 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:05	MCO 18:50	34%	10%	1.0%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON