Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1411 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1411 DAL 06:03 → MDW 08:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 36 DAL 16:50 → MDW 19:05 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1411 Southwest	DAL 06:03	MDW 08:21	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1355 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	MDW 08:15	10%	1%	0.2%	90%
WN 1357 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:05	MDW 12:20	13%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 8 Southwest	DAL 09:40	MDW 11:56	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1356 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	MDW 10:45	14%	2%	0.2%	80%
WN 1358 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:05	MDW 16:20	19%	4%	0.6%	60%
WN 16 Southwest	DAL 11:55	MDW 14:13	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1359 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:50	MDW 01:05	21%	6%	0.6%	34%
WN 4522 Southwest	DAL 13:55	MDW 16:13	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1032 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:05	MDW 14:15	22%	3%	0.6%	58%
WN 1414 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:21	MDW 17:39	25%	5%	0.6%	73%
WN 1415 Southwest	DAL 19:15	MDW 21:34	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 107 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:50	MDW 22:05	28%	7%	0.6%	36%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:50	MDW 19:05	30%	6%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON