Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:09 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:39, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Memphis on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → MEM 23:29DL 8930	4h 50m	80%	55%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → BNA 19:45WN 277	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 22:25 → MEM 23:33WN 650	5h 38m	94%	55%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:30 → HOU 18:45WN 45	2h 10m Houston	HOU 20:55 → MEM 22:35WN 2092	5h 05m	93%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON