Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 440 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day WN 440 DAL 06:01 → MSY 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4793 DAL 15:15 → MSY 16:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 440 Southwest	DAL 06:01	MSY 07:35	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1466 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	MSY 07:30	6%	1%	0.8%	96%
WN 1420 Southwest	DAL 07:31	MSY 09:06	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3312 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:00	MSY 08:25	11%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 3790 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:55	MSY 14:25	19%	4%	0.7%	57%
WN 2134 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:50	MSY 22:20	24%	6%	0.7%	44%
WN 1370 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:00	MSY 23:30	24%	7%	0.7%	58%
WN 4793 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:15	MSY 16:40	26%	5%	0.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON