Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1268 at 08:50, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1268 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:50	OAK 10:30	11%	2%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → SLC 07:40WN 1408	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:35 → OAK 11:36WN 1186	7h 36m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → OAK 09:45WN 3303	5h 45m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → LAX 07:10WN 1326	2h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 09:25 → OAK 10:51WN 1974	6h 51m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	1h 30m Denver	DEN 08:30 → OAK 10:06WN 1696	6h 06m	98%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → SAN 07:05WN 1393	2h 45m San Diego	SAN 09:50 → OAK 11:25WN 4166	7h 15m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:55 → PDX 09:55WN 1377	2h 30m Portland	PDX 12:25 → OAK 14:10WN 4928	8h 15m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → OAK 12:38WN 4280	8h 38m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:50 → SAN 08:50WN 192	1h 55m San Diego	SAN 10:45 → OAK 12:25WN 5087	6h 35m	97%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:30 → LAX 16:40WN 3161	1h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 17:45 → OAK 19:05WN 2418	5h 35m	74%	57%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:25 → SNA 17:30WN 4300	1h 05m Santa Ana	SNA 18:35 → OAK 20:00WN 3853	5h 35m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON