Today: WN 2806 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–27%.

Safest bet today WN 2806 DAL 09:15 → OKC 10:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4929 DAL 21:55 → OKC 23:09 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2806 Southwest	DAL 09:15	OKC 10:22	15%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4128 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:45	OKC 11:45	21%	2%	0.2%	68%
WN 4929 Southwest	DAL 21:55	OKC 23:09	27%	8%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON