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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → ONT 09:05WN 759 5h 05m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296 1h 30m Denver DEN 08:30 → ONT 09:54WN 3001 5h 54m 98% 92%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218 2h 35m Sacramento SMF 11:50 → ONT 13:24WN 3948 7h 44m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239 3h 15m Denver DEN 13:00 → ONT 14:26WN 2947 7h 46m 99% 82%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:25 → LAS 08:10WN 2964 1h 07m Las Vegas LAS 09:17 → ONT 10:27WN 276 5h 02m 91% 82%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:35 → AUS 08:40WN 1265 3h 05m Austin AUS 11:45 → ONT 12:47WN 553 7h 12m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628 50m Houston HOU 08:00 → ONT 09:20WN 4337 5h 20m 89% 78%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356 1h 10m Chicago MDW 11:55 → ONT 14:08WN 3508 7h 38m 92% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DAL 15:10 → BWI 19:10WN 1283 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 20:10 → ONT 22:25WN 200 9h 15m 75% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON