Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1379 DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 1305 DAL 19:04 → PHX 19:41 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1379 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	PHX 06:30	11%	2%	0.4%	97%
WN 1433 Southwest	DAL 06:21	PHX 06:59	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 873 Southwest	DAL 09:31	PHX 10:07	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1166 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:25	PHX 10:55	15%	2%	0.6%	64%
WN 1435 Southwest	DAL 11:22	PHX 12:00	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1436 Southwest	DAL 14:12	PHX 14:51	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4972 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:15	PHX 22:45	22%	7%	0.6%	67%
WN 1434 Southwest	DAL 08:26	PHX 09:03	23%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4410 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:50	PHX 09:20	23%	3%	0.4%	84%
WN 1382 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:10	PHX 12:35	23%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 4129 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:20	PHX 15:45	26%	5%	0.6%	50%
WN 1437 Southwest	DAL 17:35	PHX 18:13	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4258 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:50	PHX 19:15	30%	6%	0.6%	23%
WN 3674 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:35	PHX 21:05	31%	7%	0.6%	32%
WN 1305 Southwest	DAL 19:04	PHX 19:41	33%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON