Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:40 am at Dallas)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1752 at 12:25, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1752 Southwest	DAL 12:25	RDU 16:12	20%	3%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 15:40 → RDU 18:42WN 2971	7h 37m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:58 → RDU 23:28DL 1154	6h 29m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:00 → BNA 16:50WN 5047	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → RDU 23:15WN 4431	7h 15m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	2h 35m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → RDU 21:50WN 4221	6h 45m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:10 → BWI 19:10WN 1283	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 21:05 → RDU 22:25WN 793	6h 15m	91%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:40 → BWI 15:35WN 2595	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 17:45 → RDU 19:05WN 183	6h 25m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	5h 13m	95%	75%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:00 → BNA 11:50WN 5062	2h 30m Nashville	BNA 14:20 → RDU 16:55WN 653	5h 55m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → BNA 19:45WN 277	50m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → RDU 23:15WN 4431	4h 20m	56%	44%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:00 → HOU 14:19WN 27	46m Houston	HOU 15:05 → RDU 18:55WN 4602	4h 55m	58%	38%
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:00 → AUS 19:00WN 1269	55m Austin	AUS 19:55 → RDU 23:58WN 335	4h 58m	42%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON