Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1445 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1445 DAL 06:15 → SAN 07:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1395 DAL 20:50 → SAN 21:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1445 Southwest	DAL 06:15	SAN 07:20	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1393 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	SAN 07:05	8%	1%	0.7%	90%
WN 192 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:50	SAN 08:50	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 738 Southwest	DAL 08:10	SAN 09:16	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1319 Southwest	DAL 12:50	SAN 13:56	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 40 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:50	SAN 18:45	28%	5%	0.6%	42%
WN 1395 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:50	SAN 21:50	32%	6%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON