Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1451 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1451 DAL 06:00 → SAT 07:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4415 DAL 19:55 → SAT 21:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1451 Southwest	DAL 06:00	SAT 07:18	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4933 Southwest	DAL 07:30	SAT 08:44	10%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 1396 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:20	SAT 08:25	12%	2%	0.3%	80%
WN 2855 Southwest	DAL 10:36	SAT 11:54	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2617 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:50	SAT 10:55	14%	2%	0.5%	76%
WN 2937 Southwest	DAL 14:06	SAT 15:24	18%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1230 Southwest	DAL 12:51	SAT 14:05	20%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2671 Southwest	DAL 16:00	SAT 17:14	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1400 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:25	SAT 14:30	24%	3%	0.6%	69%
WN 114 Southwest	DAL 19:24	SAT 20:38	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1457 Southwest	DAL 20:14	SAT 21:32	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3940 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:20	SAT 13:25	24%	3%	0.5%	64%
WN 2231 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	SAT 22:55	28%	5%	0.6%	19%
WN 4415 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:55	SAT 21:00	33%	5%	0.6%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON