Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4840 Southwest	DAL 07:30	SEA 09:35	24%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1406 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:15	SEA 10:30	30%	4%	0.2%	82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	9h 10m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05WN 274	2h 35m St Louis	STL 11:40 → SEA 13:55WN 3981	8h 35m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 45m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	3h 05m Denver	DEN 10:05 → SEA 12:05WN 3051	8h 05m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218	2h 15m Sacramento	SMF 11:30 → SEA 13:26WN 3755	7h 46m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 08:35 → SEA 11:40WN 3330	7h 40m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:50 → MDW 19:05WN 36	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 22:00 → SEA 00:35 +1WN 4144	9h 45m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	8h 42m	94%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128	55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → SEA 00:55 +1WN 963	6h 25m	68%	45%
Southwest Details →	DAL 12:10 → PHX 12:35WN 1382	55m Phoenix	PHX 13:30 → SEA 16:21WN 2970	6h 11m	74%	43%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:35 → LAS 17:25WN 1322	55m Las Vegas	LAS 18:20 → SEA 20:52WN 2368	6h 17m	71%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON