tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1462 Southwest DAL 07:28 SFO 09:14 17% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 485 Southwest Flight history → DAL 07:45 SFO 09:30 18% 4% 0.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 9h 24m 98% 81%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:35 → SFO 10:10WN 4303 6h 10m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355 1h 30m Chicago MDW 09:45 → SFO 12:10WN 4367 8h 10m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55WN 1280 1h 50m Baltimore BWI 11:45 → SFO 14:27WN 4351 10h 27m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 18:08 → SFO 20:05DL 517 9h 46m 97% 78%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:10 → SAN 07:05WN 1393 2h 15m San Diego SAN 09:20 → SFO 11:00WN 3532 6h 50m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → SFO 09:55WN 3471 5h 55m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:50 → SAN 08:50WN 192 2h 25m San Diego SAN 11:15 → SFO 13:00WN 1677 7h 10m 100% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON