Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 13:05, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1407 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:35	SJC 14:05	19%	4%	0.7%	42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	3h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439	7h 25m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → LAX 07:10WN 1326	1h 50m Los Angeles	LAX 09:00 → SJC 10:15WN 2431	6h 15m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SJC 09:40WN 2978	5h 40m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	2h 30m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	7h 00m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	8h 30m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → SAN 07:05WN 1393	2h 25m San Diego	SAN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 4509	6h 50m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 12:10 → SJC 13:45WN 1242	7h 00m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:20 → BWI 11:15WN 1281	1h 35m Baltimore	BWI 12:50 → SJC 15:25WN 186	10h 05m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:10 → LAX 12:20WN 1327	50m Los Angeles	LAX 13:10 → SJC 14:25WN 2433	5h 15m	71%	59%
Southwest Details →	DAL 12:25 → BNA 14:15WN 1275	50m Nashville	BNA 15:05 → SJC 17:40WN 674	7h 15m	71%	55%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:25 → SNA 17:30WN 4300	55m Santa Ana	SNA 18:25 → SJC 19:40WN 342	5h 15m	61%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON