Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1408 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1408 DAL 06:00 → SLC 07:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4633 DAL 20:40 → SLC 22:20 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1408 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	SLC 07:40	10%	1%	0.2%	88%
WN 1426 Southwest	DAL 10:10	SLC 11:59	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 952 Southwest	DAL 21:20	SLC 23:05	28%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 4633 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:40	SLC 22:20	31%	8%	0.5%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON