Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 274 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 274 DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 4444 DAL 20:10 → STL 21:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 274 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:20	STL 09:05	7%	1%	0.6%	84%
WN 2921 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:25	STL 19:10	20%	4%	0.5%	55%
WN 1412 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:00	STL 14:45	20%	3%	0.5%	71%
WN 1414 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:50	STL 00:40	20%	4%	0.5%	57%
WN 4444 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:10	STL 21:55	22%	5%	0.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON