Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1415 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1415 DAL 06:10 → TPA 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1416 DAL 16:10 → TPA 19:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1415 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	TPA 09:35	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1472 Southwest	DAL 06:00	TPA 09:27	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1417 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:45	TPA 23:15	33%	10%	0.8%	27%
WN 1416 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:10	TPA 19:40	33%	10%	0.8%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON