Today: WN 1476 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet today WN 1476 DAL 09:15 → TUL 10:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1419 DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 1476 Southwest	DAL 09:15	TUL 10:34	11%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 4445 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:25	TUL 09:30	11%	1%	0.1%	81%
WN 1477 Southwest	DAL 21:55	TUL 23:14	19%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 4248 Southwest	DAL 16:26	TUL 17:45	19%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 4333 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:55	TUL 18:05	22%	6%	0.5%	55%
WN 1419 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:55	TUL 23:05	23%	6%	0.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON