tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 790 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 790 DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3999 DFW 20:59 → SFO 22:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time
Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 790 United Flight history → DFW 06:00 SFO 07:47 6% 2% 0.6% 89%
WN 1268 Southwest Flight history → DAL 08:50 OAK 10:30 11% 2% 0.6% 68%
UA 1922 United DFW 11:00 SFO 13:07 15% 8% 0.6% no record
AA 2046 American Flight history → DFW 09:21 SJC 11:20 15% 4% 1.0% 77%
AA 1949 American Flight history → DFW 07:10 SFO 08:53 15% 5% 1.0% 78%
WN 1462 Southwest DAL 07:28 SFO 09:14 17% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 1712 United Flight history → DFW 11:02 SFO 12:51 17% 8% 0.6% 31%
WN 485 Southwest Flight history → DAL 07:45 SFO 09:30 18% 4% 0.7% 92%
AA 2572 American Flight history → DFW 09:15 SJC 10:49 19% 4% 0.9% 76%
AA 2834 American Flight history → DFW 12:10 SJC 14:07 19% 5% 0.9% 75%
AA 1849 American Flight history → DFW 08:40 SFO 10:28 19% 8% 1.0% 51%
UA 454 United Flight history → DFW 15:21 SFO 17:13 19% 8% 0.6% 78%
WN 1407 Southwest Flight history → DAL 12:35 SJC 14:05 22% 4% 0.6% 42%
AA 436 American Flight history → DFW 12:00 SJC 13:33 23% 5% 0.9% 61%
AA 2387 American Flight history → DFW 11:24 SFO 13:06 25% 9% 1.0% 57%
AA 2997 American Flight history → DFW 13:15 SFO 14:58 25% 8% 1.2% 54%
AA 2810 American Flight history → DFW 16:17 SFO 17:59 33% 10% 0.9% 43%
AA 446 American Flight history → DFW 22:59 SFO 00:43 33% 9% 1.3% 50%
AA 3072 American Flight history → DFW 17:52 SFO 19:39 33% 9% 1.0% 39%
AA 1940 American Flight history → DFW 21:24 SJC 22:58 33% 6% 1.3% 60%
AA 1430 American Flight history → DFW 19:28 SFO 21:10 35% 9% 1.2% 52%
AA 2228 American Flight history → DFW 20:44 SFO 22:28 37% 10% 1.2% 20%
AA 2430 American Flight history → DFW 21:34 SFO 23:18 37% 9% 1.2% 48%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history → DFW 20:59 SFO 22:59 37% 14% 1.6% 55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → DAL 13:05 → LAS 13:45WN 3061 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 14:50 → SJC 16:20WN 2350 5h 15m 86% 66%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 10:40 → LAS 11:25WN 486 55m Las Vegas LAS 12:20 → SFO 13:55WN 2343 5h 15m 81% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON