Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 790 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 790 DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2228 DFW 20:44 → SFO 22:28 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 20% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 790 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	SFO 07:47	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1268 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:50	OAK 10:30	8%	2%	0.6%	68%
AA 1949 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SFO 08:53	13%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 2572 American Flight history →	DFW 09:15	SJC 10:49	13%	3%	0.7%	76%
UA 1712 United Flight history →	DFW 11:02	SFO 12:51	14%	6%	0.6%	31%
WN 485 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:45	SFO 09:30	15%	4%	0.7%	92%
AA 1849 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	SFO 10:28	16%	6%	0.8%	51%
UA 454 United Flight history →	DFW 15:21	SFO 17:13	17%	9%	0.5%	78%
AA 436 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	SJC 13:33	18%	4%	0.7%	61%
WN 1407 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:35	SJC 14:05	19%	4%	0.6%	42%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	DFW 11:24	SFO 13:06	22%	8%	0.7%	57%
AA 2997 American Flight history →	DFW 13:15	SFO 14:58	24%	7%	0.8%	54%
AA 1940 American Flight history →	DFW 21:24	SJC 22:58	24%	6%	0.8%	60%
AA 446 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	SFO 00:43	30%	9%	1.0%	50%
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	32%	10%	0.8%	43%
AA 3072 American Flight history →	DFW 17:52	SFO 19:39	33%	9%	0.8%	39%
AA 2430 American Flight history →	DFW 21:34	SFO 23:18	33%	8%	0.8%	48%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SFO 22:59	35%	14%	1.6%	55%
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	36%	9%	0.8%	52%
AA 2228 American Flight history →	DFW 20:44	SFO 22:28	37%	9%	0.8%	20%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DAL 13:05 → LAS 13:45WN 3061	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 14:50 → SJC 16:20WN 2350	5h 15m	86%	66%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:40 → LAS 11:25WN 486	55m Las Vegas	LAS 12:20 → SFO 13:55WN 2343	5h 15m	84%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON