Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 37 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1355 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1355 DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 36 DAL 16:50 → MDW 19:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1355 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	MDW 08:15	6%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 1411 Southwest	DAL 06:04	MDW 08:20	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1360 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	ORD 07:38	7%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 1938 American Flight history →	DFW 04:54	ORD 07:21	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2999 American Flight history →	DFW 05:53	ORD 08:11	9%	3%	0.7%	76%
UA 1114 United Flight history →	DFW 09:45	ORD 12:26	9%	3%	0.5%	92%
AA 3075 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	ORD 08:39	10%	3%	0.7%	80%
WN 1356 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	MDW 10:45	10%	2%	0.6%	80%
UA 1695 United Flight history →	DFW 07:08	ORD 09:50	11%	4%	0.6%	82%
WN 1357 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:05	MDW 12:20	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 8 Southwest	DAL 09:41	MDW 11:55	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1106 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	ORD 09:42	12%	4%	0.7%	74%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	13%	5%	0.6%	74%
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 09:35	ORD 12:14	13%	4%	0.7%	69%
MQ 3549 Envoy	DFW 07:57	ORD 10:23	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 328 American Flight history →	DFW 08:28	ORD 10:55	13%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1059 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	ORD 11:10	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 3330 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	ORD 13:25	15%	4%	0.7%	63%
AA 337 American	DFW 09:32	ORD 11:59	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3531 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:28	ORD 22:15	16%	4%	0.7%	64%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	17%	6%	0.6%	63%
WN 1358 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:05	MDW 16:20	18%	4%	0.6%	60%
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	18%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 1032 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:05	MDW 14:15	18%	3%	0.6%	58%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	19%	5%	0.7%	66%
AA 1193 American Flight history →	DFW 22:12	ORD 00:50	19%	5%	0.8%	55%
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	20%	6%	0.7%	63%
UA 2299 United Flight history →	DFW 16:13	ORD 18:55	22%	6%	0.6%	57%
WN 1359 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:50	MDW 01:05	22%	6%	0.6%	34%
AA 2474 American Flight history →	DFW 16:50	ORD 19:44	22%	7%	0.7%	55%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	22%	6%	0.6%	60%
F9 1342 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:25	ORD 16:08	24%	9%	0.8%	75%
WN 107 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:50	MDW 22:05	25%	6%	0.6%	36%
AA 1424 American Flight history →	DFW 18:38	ORD 21:22	25%	7%	0.7%	39%
F9 2882 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:44	MDW 12:06	25%	6%	0.8%	65%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DFW 17:34	ORD 20:29	26%	7%	0.7%	41%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:50	MDW 19:05	26%	6%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON