tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 43 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1628 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2209 DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time
Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
WN 1628 Southwest Flight history → DAL 06:00 HOU 07:10 6% 1% 0.7% 93%
WN 1 Southwest Flight history → DAL 06:52 HOU 08:10 6% 1% 0.7% 92%
UA 2260 United Flight history → DFW 05:10 IAH 06:22 7% 3% 0.6% 95%
WN 3 Southwest Flight history → DAL 07:30 HOU 08:45 8% 2% 0.7% 92%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history → DAL 08:30 HOU 09:45 9% 2% 0.7% 84%
WN 15 Southwest Flight history → DAL 09:59 HOU 11:17 9% 2% 0.7% 90%
WN 5 Southwest Flight history → DAL 08:01 HOU 09:17 10% 2% 0.7% 85%
WN 23 Southwest Flight history → DAL 10:30 HOU 11:45 11% 2% 0.7% 82%
WN 19 Southwest Flight history → DAL 11:30 HOU 12:45 13% 2% 0.7% 80%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 07:33 HOU 08:52 15% 3% 0.7% 88%
WN 37 Southwest Flight history → DAL 15:30 HOU 16:50 16% 4% 0.7% 66%
UA 2670 United Flight history → DFW 07:00 IAH 08:26 18% 5% 0.6% 72%
WN 29 Southwest Flight history → DAL 13:30 HOU 14:45 18% 4% 0.6% 51%
UA 2114 United Flight history → DFW 19:34 IAH 20:55 18% 8% 0.6% 84%
UA 1586 United Flight history → DFW 09:46 IAH 11:03 18% 5% 0.6% 82%
WN 45 Southwest Flight history → DAL 17:30 HOU 18:45 18% 4% 0.6% 60%
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 14:33 IAH 15:48 19% 4% 0.7% 71%
WN 41 Southwest Flight history → DAL 16:30 HOU 17:45 20% 4% 0.6% 68%
UA 1609 United Flight history → DFW 17:24 IAH 18:46 20% 8% 0.6% 60%
UA 539 United Flight history → DFW 11:59 IAH 13:17 21% 6% 0.6% 85%
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DFW 10:51 HOU 12:16 21% 10% 0.8% 83%
AA 4923 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DFW 17:50 IAH 19:11 22% 12% 0.7% 71%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 06:58 IAH 08:11 22% 4% 0.7% 69%
AA 5071 American flown by PSA Flight history → DFW 08:25 HOU 09:48 22% 8% 0.9% 67%
WN 63 Southwest Flight history → DAL 22:00 HOU 23:15 22% 6% 0.7% 55%
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 18:34 HOU 19:53 22% 4% 0.7% 67%
WN 57 Southwest Flight history → DAL 20:30 HOU 21:40 23% 5% 0.7% 72%
OO 6458 SkyWest DFW 09:46 HOU 11:05 23% 10% 0.8% no record
OO 4980 SkyWest DFW 10:02 IAH 11:15 24% 9% 0.7% no record
UA 2682 United Flight history → DFW 16:01 IAH 17:18 26% 7% 0.6% 67%
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DFW 14:21 HOU 15:44 26% 11% 0.7% 72%
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DFW 16:56 HOU 18:19 28% 9% 0.8% 64%
OH 5181 PSA DFW 08:34 IAH 09:51 28% 7% 0.8% no record
AA 5465 American flown by PSA Flight history → DFW 22:38 HOU 23:56 28% 13% 0.9% 50%
AA 1916 American Flight history → DFW 08:35 IAH 09:47 30% 5% 1.3% 67%
AA 2166 American DFW 09:44 IAH 10:57 33% 6% 1.8% no record
AA 1392 American Flight history → DFW 18:36 IAH 19:54 36% 10% 1.2% 50%
AA 2512 American Flight history → DFW 11:58 IAH 13:08 38% 9% 1.0% 41%
AA 1929 American Flight history → DFW 16:51 IAH 18:08 39% 10% 1.0% 28%
AA 3193 American Flight history → DFW 07:20 IAH 08:32 39% 6% 1.3% 73%worse than usual
AA 1914 American Flight history → DFW 22:48 IAH 23:58 39% 9% 1.3% 45%
AA 2209 American Flight history → DFW 21:10 IAH 22:24 41% 10% 1.3% 48%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record DFW 14:15 IAH 15:37 29% 17% 0.0% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON