Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1434 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 1434 DAL 06:05 → MCO 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 2886 DFW 20:20 → MCO 00:14 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1434 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	MCO 09:45	5%	1%	0.8%	100%
WN 1404 Southwest	DAL 06:21	MCO 09:55	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1725 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:10	MCO 12:50	9%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 1540 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:00	MCO 13:40	10%	3%	0.7%	58%
AA 3085 American	DFW 06:05	MCO 09:52	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 3173 American Flight history →	DFW 06:15	MCO 09:50	15%	3%	1.2%	83%
AA 2119 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	MCO 10:49	16%	4%	0.9%	78%
F9 1482 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:28	MCO 12:28	19%	5%	1.0%	81%
AA 2081 American Flight history →	DFW 09:47	MCO 13:31	23%	5%	0.9%	69%
AA 1312 American Flight history →	DFW 10:55	MCO 14:37	24%	6%	1.3%	59%
AA 2097 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	MCO 15:44	26%	8%	1.2%	41%
F9 4018 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:49	MCO 15:48	27%	9%	1.3%	76%
AA 1288 American Flight history →	DFW 13:15	MCO 16:56	30%	10%	1.3%	60%
WN 4405 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:30	MCO 00:15	31%	9%	1.3%	52%
WN 463 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:35	MCO 22:15	31%	10%	1.3%	35%
WN 965 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:45	MCO 21:30	33%	10%	1.3%	42%
WN 1352 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:05	MCO 18:50	33%	11%	1.2%	23%
AA 2186 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	MCO 22:20	37%	12%	1.8%	46%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 19:40	MCO 23:24	37%	12%	1.8%	22%
AA 2974 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	MCO 21:10	37%	13%	2.7%	51%
AA 2791 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	MCO 20:25	39%	13%	1.8%	44%
AA 1336 American Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MCO 00:21	39%	12%	2.1%	52%
F9 2886 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:20	MCO 00:14	39%	19%	2.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON