tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3189 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 3189 DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 1882 DFW 16:10 → FLL 20:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 3189 American Flight history → DFW 05:00 MIA 08:55 9% 3% 1.0% 84%
AA 3055 American Flight history → DFW 06:00 MIA 10:00 12% 3% 0.9% 81%
AA 1003 American DFW 07:16 MIA 11:17 13% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 1866 American Flight history → DFW 07:00 FLL 10:53 14% 4% 0.7% 80%
AA 3290 American Flight history → DFW 07:10 MIA 11:11 14% 3% 0.8% 82%
AA 1429 American Flight history → DFW 07:05 FLL 11:04 15% 4% 0.7% 70%
AA 2762 American Flight history → DFW 09:31 MIA 13:29 17% 5% 0.8% 70%
AA 2276 American Flight history → DFW 09:30 PBI 13:21 18% 5% 0.8% 72%
AA 1863 American Flight history → DFW 10:21 FLL 14:14 19% 6% 0.7% 70%
WN 1361 Southwest Flight history → DAL 11:30 MIA 15:20 19% 4% 0.7% 68%
B6 2282 JetBlue Flight history → DFW 07:00 FLL 10:57 19% 6% 0.7% 83%
AA 899 American Flight history → DFW 10:32 MIA 14:30 20% 6% 1.0% 55%
AA 1862 American Flight history → DFW 12:45 FLL 16:39 23% 7% 0.7% 55%
AA 2014 American Flight history → DFW 11:45 FLL 15:36 24% 7% 0.7% 59%
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history → DFW 10:02 MIA 14:12 24% 9% 0.8% 70%
AA 3117 American Flight history → DFW 12:45 MIA 16:43 25% 7% 1.2% 51%
AA 1868 American Flight history → DFW 14:25 FLL 18:19 28% 9% 0.8% 38%
AA 2282 American Flight history → DFW 13:29 PBI 17:19 28% 9% 1.2% 53%
B6 482 JetBlue Flight history → DFW 11:28 FLL 15:24 30% 13% 0.7% 76%
AA 2946 American Flight history → DFW 18:55 FLL 22:52 30% 10% 0.8% 49%
AA 3083 American Flight history → DFW 15:39 MIA 19:40 31% 10% 1.2% 46%
AA 2206 American Flight history → DFW 18:10 MIA 22:05 31% 10% 1.3% 56%
AA 1824 American Flight history → DFW 19:12 MIA 22:59 32% 10% 1.8% 69%
WN 46 Southwest Flight history → DAL 19:20 FLL 23:10 33% 6% 0.6% 40%
AA 2823 American Flight history → DFW 20:05 MIA 23:56 33% 10% 1.6% 41%
AA 2467 American Flight history → DFW 18:50 PBI 22:45 33% 10% 1.2% 61%
AA 3308 American Flight history → DFW 16:30 MIA 20:35 33% 10% 1.3% 56%
AA 1167 American Flight history → DFW 14:25 MIA 18:24 33% 10% 1.2% 46%
AA 1393 American Flight history → DFW 20:08 FLL 23:58 35% 10% 0.8% 36%
F9 1974 Frontier Flight history → DFW 13:53 FLL 17:55 35% 14% 0.9% 66%
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history → DFW 16:10 FLL 20:10 37% 16% 0.8% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON