Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3108 at 11:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3108 DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3088 DAY 18:38 → ATL 20:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3108 Delta Flight history →	DAY 11:23	ATL 13:02	8%	4%	1.2%	92%
DL 3140 Delta Flight history →	DAY 06:00	ATL 07:40	10%	3%	1.2%	91%
DL 2763 Delta Flight history →	DAY 15:56	ATL 17:40	14%	5%	1.2%	89%
DL 3088 Delta Flight history →	DAY 18:38	ATL 20:29	22%	6%	1.2%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON